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Two rounds remain, it’s the first matchpoint of the season. Indonesia expects as Aldi Mahendra (Team BrCorse) faces huge history – becoming the first World Champion from the south east Asian nation. With plenty of twists and turns, the 2024 FIM Supersport 300 World Championship heads to the track which epitomises this rollercoaster season – MotorLand Aragon, a stone’s throw from the historic town of Alcaniz. Will it be history making weekend or will the title race roll on to a showdown in Jerez?

THE MATHS: Mahendra can only take the crown in Race 2 if…

In order for Mahendra to win the title, it hinges on his Race 1 result. He can’t be Champion there but he can be in Race 2 if he scores 39 points more than Loris Veneman (MTM Kawasaki) across both races and 25 more than Inigo Iglesias (Fusport-RT Motorsport by SKM-Kawasaki). He must also have a 51-point gap (depending on wins) to Jeffrey Buis (Freudenberg KTM – Paligo Racing) over the whole round. In short, to have any chance in Race 2, he must first finish in the top four in Race 1. Should he win the race, then Veneman must be in the top four in order to make the title race go to Jerez after Race 2. Iglesias is 26 points back so needs to beat the #57 in Race 1 if he has any chance of taking the title race to final round. In terms of past circuit results, it’s Mahendra’s first time racing at Aragon. Veneman won for the first time in his career last year, whilst Iglesias has had a top five as recently as 2022.

HANGING ON BY A THREAD: Jeffrey Buis not going down without a fight

Fourth in the standings but 53 points back from the top of the Championship, Buis knows that Aragon couldn’t have come at a better time. A circuit which he loves and has won at before – three times in 2020 and once in 2023 – is just what he needed to maintain his momentum after a second win of 2024 last time out at Magny-Cours. He needs to be within 50 points of the Championship lead going to Jerez to have a mathematical chance although he can’t be ruled into the Championship scrap until after Sunday. Nine points further back is Marc Garcia (Kove Racing Team), also mathematically in contention and a winner at Aragon in 2022. In terms of contention, anyone in the top ten can theoretically still take honours but realistically, it’s the top three. Mirko Gennai’s (MTM Kawasaki) squandered chance in France means he is sixth and 63 behind; perhaps his main priority will be to help teammate Loris Veneman.

COMPLETING THE TOP: loyalties, priorities and neutrality

Seventh place belongs to Galang Hendra Pratama (ProGP NitiRacing), the brother of Championship leader Mahendra. Likewise on Yamaha machinery, it goes without saying that he’ll be hoping to help out Aldi if possible. In P8 overall, it’s basically a home-round for Team#109 Retro Traffic Kawasaki and Daniel Mogeda, with the Spanish rider from Barcelona but his Irish team’s workshop at the Aragon facility. A double winner at Assen, Mogeda will be out to add to his tally and finish 2024 strongly. Back to Mahendra’s support and teammate Marco Gaggi will aim to help his teammate. He’s just a point ahead of P10’s Julio Garcia (Kove Racing Team), who hopes for a podium return after two P8s at Magny-Cours.

KEEP AN EYE ON: riders behind that could be in the mix

Pepe Osuna (DEZA-BOX 77 Racing Team) is in P11 overall whilst Magny-Cours winner Unai Calatayud (ARCO SASH MotoR University Team) rocketed up into P12. Humbero Maier (MS Racing) was right in the mix in France, as were Elia Bartolini (Yamaha Motoxracing WorldSSP300 Team) and Phillip Tonn (Freudenberg KTM – Paligo Racing), the latter of which took a career-first top six in Race 2 and will look to try and help teammate Buis this weekend if possible. Always keep a watchful eye on Bruno Ieraci (Team ProDina Kawasaki) and the luckless Matteo Vannucci (Pata Yamaha AG Motorsport Italia) who will hope his fortunes turn around for the final two rounds of the season.

CHANGES TO THE LINE-UP: Carter Thompson returns, Sullivan Mounsey debuts

Carter Thompson is back as a replacement rider for Petr Svoboda at the Fusport-RT Motorsports by SKM-Kawasaki squad, whilst race winner Samuel Di Sora will not be present this weekend. There’ll be plenty of excitement as Britain’s Sullivan Mounsey makes his World Championship debut in place of Chris Clark at the Accolade Smrz Racing Team. Mounsey is a five-time race winner in the British Talent Cup, finishing runner-up in 2023. He’s also been able to set a fastest lap in the Red Bull MotoGP™ Rookies this year and has been a points scorer.

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